oil mogul  aha:!

you are an oil mogul considering the purchase of drilling rights to an as yet unexplored tract of land.

the well's expected value to its current owners is uniformly distributed over [$1..$100]. (i.e., a 1% chance it's worth each value b/w $1..$100, inclusive).

bcause you have greater economies of scale than the current owners, the well will actually be worth 50% more to you than to them (but they don't know this).

the catch: although you must bid on the well before drilling starts (and hence, before the actual yield of the well is known), the current owner can wait until *after* the well's actual value is ascertained before accepting your bid or not.

what should you bid?

thanks to tom and jay